Many people believe that the financial markets are totally random. The random walk hypothesis is a financial theory that states the price of a market cannot be predicted. Economists have historically accepted the random walk hypothesis. Professor Burton G. Malkiel, of Princeton University was the first person to propose this idea.
Yet many people can make a living trading the financial markets, making money time and time again. So it often makes me wonder, if the markets were random how can they do that.
Have you ever wondered how they were doing it?
I’m Mike Haran and I’m a full time trader, and I believe that the financial markets are certainly not completely random and can move with the precision of a swiss watch. The markets may appear to be random, in fact they obey the laws of chaos, I have seen markets go into fribulation before they collapse, just like a human heart, the frequency doubles then the market collapses. The markets even appear to repeat moves in time with an amazing regularity.
If you can find the correct swing in time lets call it the master swing it is possible to predict the next swing in the market with amazing accuracy. Not only that but that swing length will repeat all the way through the wave structure. Sometimes running from high to high, high to low or low to high. The thing that makes the market difficult to trade is the knowing where the next swing will be projected from.
The cyclic nature of the markets and reoccurring repeating patterns would seem to indicate that far from being random, the markets do seem to behave in a structured way. This structure is then disturbed by seemingly chaotic activity where the markets will suddenly fracture and move rapidly in another direction seemingly at random. The markets are thought to be a non linear dynamic system composed of a trend component and highly random price element. However, in these random move repetitive patterns form which appear to offer a predictive analysis of future price movement. This is often referred to as pattern trading.